Trade displacement effects caused by the enlargement of a preferential trade area are examined in theory and empirically. The Ricardian model of trade is expanded to four countries to show the trade and welfare effects on members and nonmembers caused by enlargement of a customs union. A simulation follows to help clarify the results. The enlargement of the European Union is examined through a dynamic shift-share analysis and the gravity model is employed to determine the significance of trade displacement. The analysis demonstrates that trade displacement is likely to have occurred with the enlargement of the EU, but the significance of this displacement is not strong.
|Commitee:||Appleyard, Dennis, Black, Stanley, Guilkey, David, Tauchen, Helen|
|School:||The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill|
|School Location:||United States -- North Carolina|
|Source:||DAI-A 73/06, Dissertation Abstracts International|
|Keywords:||Gravity model, International trade, Preferential trade agreements, Ricardian model, Shift-share analysis, Trade displacement|
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