California’s Governor’s Executive Order (CGEO) S-3-05 requires that all greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions be reduced by 80 percent of the 1990 levels by the year 2050. The current study focuses on the reductions in airborne particulate matter (PM) concentrations with aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) associated with the effects of CGEO S-3-05 on California’s transportation sector. The adoption of new transportation technologies was modeled based on analysis conducted under the Sustainable Transportation Energy Pathways Study (STEPS) at the Institute for Transportation Studies (ITS) at UC Davis. PM concentrations were predicted using a reactive chemical transport model during a severe stagnation event modeled under climatology appropriate for the year 2050. Eight transportation emissions scenarios were modeled: one base case scenario where the GHG goals of CGEO S-3-05 were not met, five scenarios where individual new technologies were used to the plausible limit of their marketplace penetration (termed “silver bullet” scenarios), and two combined new technology scenarios where transportation GHG emissions were reduced sufficiently to meet the goals of CGEO S-3-05. The new and emerging technologies that were studied included: hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, electric vehicles, high-efficiency fuel economy vehicles, and biofuel vehicles. One scenario was also devoted to extensive increases in public mass transit. The final two scenarios that attained the goals of CGEO S-3-05 used biofuel vehicles or electric vehicles in combination with hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.
The 16-day average maximum PM2.5 concentration predicted in 2050 in the absence of CGEO S-3-05 was 45.56 μg/m3 (in violation of the 24-hr average 35 μg/m3 current National Ambient Air Quality Standard - NAAQS). The scenarios that employed single technologies all produced statewide reductions in particulate matter and criteria pollutant concentrations (in some regions with a peak reduction of 3.7 to 5.6 μg/m 3). The final two combined technology scenarios achieved larger reductions in PM2.5 concentrations due to the almost complete replacement of internal combustion technology (with peak reductions of 5.6 μg/m 3). In terms of population-weighted PM2.5 exposure, the S-3-05-attainment scenarios achieve greater reductions than the silver bullet scenarios. Finally, the public mass transit silver bullet scenario achieved the least reduction of all the modeled scenarios, while the S-3-05-attainment biofuel vehicle scenario achieved the greatest reduction.
|Advisor:||Kleeman, Michael J.|
|Commitee:||Cappa, Chris D., Ogden, Joan M.|
|School:||University of California, Davis|
|Department:||Civil and Environmental Engineering|
|School Location:||United States -- California|
|Source:||MAI 50/02M, Masters Abstracts International|
|Subjects:||Climate Change, Environmental engineering|
|Keywords:||California, Climate, Legislation, Pollution, Transportation|
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