Essay 1: Export Duration and New Market Entry. This paper explores the relationship between prior export duration and new market entry within the same industry in a sample of 75 predominantly high- and middle-income countries. Using 3-digit level SITC manufacturing trade data for 1990-2008 I construct several measures of each country’s aggregate industry-specific export experience weighted by the relative likeliness to each potential destination market. I use two measures of similarity between existing and potential destination markets -- distance and differences in GDP per capita -- as two alternative weighting schemes. I then apply these aggregate duration measures to examine the likelihood of new export starts over 1994- 2008. I find that prior export duration increases the likelihood of new market entry within the same 3-digit level SITC industry but that this effect diminishes with time. My results suggest presence of previously unaccounted for industry-specific learning-by-exporting effects across destination markets.
Essay 2: Cross-Industry Spillover Effects of Export Duration. This paper offers a first stab at identifying cross-industry spillover effects of export duration. Using 4-digit SITC industry level trade data for 89 countries over 1975-2000 I explore how the likelihood of a new trade relationship in a previously un-exported industry is affected by export duration in related industries. I consider three approaches in measuring cross- industry relatedness: cross-industry patent citation shares, an export outcomes –based measure developed by Hausmann and Klinger (2007) called “proximity,” and differences in industries’ 4-digit SITC classification codes. I then develop a range of export duration indexes based on these alternative measures of cross-industry relatedness and examine their role in new export entry. I find that while the value of export relationships in related industries has a significant and positive effect on new export entry, the effect of export relationship duration in related industries varies considerably across data samples and specifications.
Essay 3: US Industry Characteristics and Import Duration. This paper examines the role of importing country’s industry characteristics in import flow hazard rates using detailed 6-digit level NAICS data for nearly 400 US manufacturing industries in 1989-2006. Applying survival analysis methodology I consider the following US industry characteristics: size, productivity, market structure, factor intensity and growth rate. While the main focus of this paper is on the relationship between domestic industry characteristics and the duration of import flows within the same 6-digit NAICS industry (horizontal linkage), I also explore the role of domestic industry characteristics in import duration of upstream industries (vertical linkage). I find that same-sector US industry characteristics can play an important role in import trade duration and that this effect is strongest for single import spells (import spells that occur only once over 1989-2006). In particular, I find that improvements in US industry productivity growth rates reduce import spell survival probabilities, especially in the case of single spells; that increases in US industry labor intensity reduce import flow hazard of both single and repeated import spells; and that high US industry growth rates can have an adverse effect on the duration of single import spells but not necessarily on that of repeated spells. The role of US industry characteristics in import duration of upstream industries is less clear.
|Advisor:||Moore, Michael O.|
|Commitee:||Andriamananjara, Soamielyy, Blitt, Joel, Chen, Maggie X., Suranovic, Steven M.|
|School:||The George Washington University|
|School Location:||United States -- District of Columbia|
|Source:||DAI-A 72/06, Dissertation Abstracts International|
|Keywords:||Export duration, Export survival, Import duration, Import survival, International trade, Learning by exporting|
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