Educators lack an efficient means to predict academic success at the high school level. Analysis of assessment scores may provide prediction patterns to help districts raise the percentage of students who persist to graduation, provide support for students who exhibit characteristics of academic risk or giftedness, and move populations closer to meeting Adequate Yearly Progress. To consider assessment data as potential indicators of academic transition success from middle to high school, this study examined the correlation between middle school Missouri Assessment Program (MAP) scores and high school Grade Point Average (GPA). MAP Communication Arts and Mathematics were independent variables. The dependent variable was cumulative freshman-year GPA.
Stepwise multiple regression analysis determined a positive correlation between each independent variable and freshman-year GPA. Calculation of the Pearson Coefficient determined that MAP Mathematics demonstrated the strongest relationship. A logistic regression analysis was used to investigate the value of MAP Communication Arts and Mathematics scores as predictors of the range of GPA likely to be achieved. Using conditional probabilities, a prediction model was constructed and applied to analyze characteristics of data across a two-year time span. Preliminary identification of student MAP achievement in the Advanced and Proficient categories allowed a comparison to the subsequent GPA range. Ranges were defined by dividing the traditional 4.0 GPA into five categories.
Scores in the Advanced and Proficient ranges from each MAP category yielded an excellent accuracy rate for predicting a GPA of 2.5 & above, and a strong accuracy rate for predicting a GPA of 3.0 & above. The Mathematics and Communication Arts categories demonstrated an excellent prediction success rate for the GPA category of 3.5 & above. Results indicate that educators may benefit from adding middle school MAP Mathematics scores to the portfolio when evaluating strengths and weaknesses relative to academic transition to high school. Before deciding upon the usefulness of this tool, a district would benefit from a similar examination of its own data. Factors not considered in this study, such as choice of school improvement model (Professional Learning Community vs. Accelerated Schools) and type of scheduling (block vs. traditional), may yield differing results district-to-district.
|Advisor:||Bice, Cynthia J.|
|Commitee:||Clark, Lois A., Dickinson, Kelly, Streb, A. G., Vitale, Cindy|
|School Location:||United States -- Missouri|
|Source:||DAI-A 69/12, Dissertation Abstracts International|
|Subjects:||Educational tests & measurements, Secondary education|
|Keywords:||Academic success, Assessment, Freshman, Grade point average, Middle school, Missouri Assessment Program|
Copyright in each Dissertation and Thesis is retained by the author. All Rights Reserved
The supplemental file or files you are about to download were provided to ProQuest by the author as part of a
dissertation or thesis. The supplemental files are provided "AS IS" without warranty. ProQuest is not responsible for the
content, format or impact on the supplemental file(s) on our system. in some cases, the file type may be unknown or
may be a .exe file. We recommend caution as you open such files.
Copyright of the original materials contained in the supplemental file is retained by the author and your access to the
supplemental files is subject to the ProQuest Terms and Conditions of use.
Depending on the size of the file(s) you are downloading, the system may take some time to download them. Please be