Effective cost management of Major Defense Acquisition Programs remains problematic for the Department of Defense. Although significant effort has been expended in performing root cause analysis of cost overruns, the development of models that can predict such overruns before they occur is less explored. This research draws upon program performance data provided to Congress in Selective Acquisition Reports and Government Accounting Office assessments to develop a method to predict cost exceedances before a program is found “in breach” as defined in the 1982 Nunn-McCurdy Act (as amended). Such predictive capability could inform preemptive action, and thereby reduce the risk of breach and subsequent program cancellation. The method affords insight into the principle explanatory factors in program cost performance and leads to the development of multi-variate regression models which can predict cost overruns during program development and prior to full rate production.