Dissertation/Thesis Abstract

A Meta-analysis of Geospatial Estimates in the Case of Malaysian Airlines Flight MH370
by Large, Peter Oliver, Ed.D., Oklahoma State University, 2019, 285; 13857090
Abstract (Summary)

This study performs a meta-analysis of 38 studies providing geospatial estimates for the final location of MH370, investigates the spatial characteristics of antennas as a potential source of additional useful spatial information and direction sensing, and makes an independent assessment of the impact of the Global Aeronautical Distress and Safety System implementation on the reduction of the probability of future oceanic hull loss accidents with high spatial uncertainty. The meta-analysis finds that those studies derived from ocean drift modelling are statistically homogenous, while those derived from satellite communications observations are statistically heterogenous. This heterogeneity may be explained by the multimodal nature of the solution space when making use of the Doppler-based Burst Frequency Offset measurements. Inclusion in a physical model of the known variation in peak gain for the MH370 aircraft’s MSS antenna as a function of apparent satellite elevation and azimuth, as an additional direction sensing technique, is shown to reduce the bimodality and multimodality of the BFO-only solutions when the two are combined, however the technique is not sufficiently powerful under the present model to isolate a single trajectory for the flight. The most coherent trajectories terminate around 34-37S latitude. Probability distributions are estimated for future oceanic hull losses with high spatial uncertainty during the period 2020-2030, through Monte Carlo simulation of scenarios related to the GADSS implementation. The risk of a loss with high spatial uncertainty such as was encountered with Air France 447 and Malaysian Airlines 370 is forecast to be reduced but far from eliminated.

Indexing (document details)
Advisor: Loffi, Jon
Commitee: Mwavita, Mwrumba, Vance, Samuel M., Gardner-Vandy, Kathryn, Jacob, Jamey
School: Oklahoma State University
Department: Aviation & Space Science
School Location: United States -- Oklahoma
Source: DAI-A 81/3(E), Dissertation Abstracts International
Subjects: Education, Aerospace engineering, Applied physics
Keywords: GADSS, Malaysian airlines, Meta-analysis, MH370
Publication Number: 13857090
ISBN: 9781088381410
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