Small beef grazing operations is an important part of Texas agriculture. These operations are at a high risk for climate impacts on profit. Careful evaluation of the economic impacts of drought and other climate effects were performed in order to better equip producers with the skills and knowledge needed to withstand extreme climate events. Using a specific study area in north central Texas, two computer simulation models, Agricultural Policy/Environmental eXtender (APEX) and Farm-level Economic Model (FEM), were used to determine the impacts of climate variability on forage production and farm profits. For this study, two models were ran with a historical baseline along with eleven different climate scenarios, including three main future climate scenarios: RCP 26, RCP 45, and RCP 85, which represent increasing levels of average ambient temperatures. After evaluating model results it is shown that profit risk for small beef grazing operations will increase significantly from current levels if weather conditions follow the patterns projected under RCP 85. Under the most pessimistic scenario for temperature increases – RCP85 – farm profits are projected to increase, but at the expense of a tripling of profit risk. RCP 26 and RCP 45 show that small beef grazing operations profits will double in profit risk compared to the historical baseline.
|Commitee:||Drueckhammer, David, Lovell, Ashley|
|School:||Tarleton State University|
|Department:||Agricultural and Consumer Sciences|
|School Location:||United States -- Texas|
|Source:||MAI 58/05M(E), Masters Abstracts International|
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