The presented research is related to the propagation of epistemic uncertainty in the fields of seismic hazard and numerical simulations.
An important part of a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is the incorporation of the epistemic uncertainty in the hazard calculation. A computationally efficient methodology for propagating the epistemic uncertainty in the ground motion models in PSHA is developed using the polynomial chaos (PC) approach. This approach estimates the full epistemic uncertainty distribution including the tails of the distribution which are not captured using traditional approaches.
Similarly, in finite element simulations (FEM), assessing and propagating the epistemic uncertainty in material properties and external loading in the FEM system is necessary to estimate the uncertainty in the resulting ground motion. The stochastic finite elements method also uses the PC approach for that purpose, which is computationally much more efficient than traditional Monte-Carlo simulations. A stochastic constitutive model is also developed to propagate the uncertainty in non-linear material models.
|Advisor:||Abrahamson, Norman A.|
|Commitee:||Chai, Rob Y., Sukumar, Natarajan|
|School:||University of California, Davis|
|Department:||Civil and Environmental Engineering|
|School Location:||United States -- California|
|Source:||DAI-B 80/07(E), Dissertation Abstracts International|
|Subjects:||Applied Mathematics, Statistics, Civil engineering|
|Keywords:||Finite elements, Polynomial chaos, Seismic hazard, Stochastic|
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