Dissertation/Thesis Abstract

Accuracy in Polling: An Exploratory Study of Michigan 2016 Presidential Polls
by Revak, Joshua, B.A.M./M.B.A., Alaska Pacific University, 2018, 77; 13420328
Abstract (Summary)

In the State of Michigan both the democrat primary and the general elections were more inaccurate than any scientific polls have been since the early 20 th century. This thesis explored two questions. The first was, how wrong were the polls in the 2016 Michigan presidential election? The second was, how and in what ways might pollsters have made different analyses in forecasting the same election? This qualitative study was conducted using primary research through interviews with pollsters who conducted polls of the 2016 elections in the State of Michigan. The findings showed that the polls were wrong and that polling could be improved through the integration of new technologies in voter contact methods, changes in demographic sample weighting procedures based on voter enthusiasm, and better interpretation of polls by public opinion research consumers.

Indexing (document details)
Advisor: Lund, Carole
Commitee: Colt, Steve, Dennis Holmes, Beverly, Larkin, Matthew
School: Alaska Pacific University
Department: Business Administration
School Location: United States -- Alaska
Source: MAI 58/03M(E), Masters Abstracts International
Subjects: Marketing, Political science, Information science
Keywords: Clinton, Hillary, Data analysis, Elections, Polling, Public opinion, Trump, Donald
Publication Number: 13420328
ISBN: 978-0-438-72603-1
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