The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has remained frozen, despite many negotiation attempts, because the parties entrusted with its resolution – OSCE Minsk Group (Russia, France, and the United States.), Azerbaijan and Armenia – gain more from maintaining the status quo than from resolution. To reach this conclusion, the author completed field work in the region, conducting interviews with officials and civilians, and recording personal observations. The author also did extensive background reading via historical texts, journalistic non-fiction books, newspaper and magazine articles, and NGO reports.
If the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict were to be resolved, the region would open up and pipelines could theoretically be built through Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh, allowing them economic freedom, by collecting transit fees, and the ability to grow independent from Russia through regional, and perhaps international, trade agreements. By keeping the conflict frozen, Russia is able to maintain economic sovereignty and exploit both states for uranium and other minerals, while simultaneously regaining their “world power” status. From the Western (U.S., Great Britain and France) perspective, the frozen status creates a stable business environment, allowing them to maintain their oil investment in the Caspian Sea, and Azerbaijan is able to reap the economic benefits of that. As for Armenia, the frozen status allows it to conclude that it has finally won a conflict, which is nationally important after centuries of defeat, genocide and humiliation. For all parties, however, continuing this frozen status is dangerous. If the status quo continues, tensions will build and the conflict could re-ignite. This could lead to not only regional conflict, but potentially wider war.
|School:||The American University of Paris (France)|
|Source:||MAI 56/02M(E), Masters Abstracts International|
|Keywords:||Caucasus, Geopolitics, Karabakh, Nagorno-karabakh|
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