The purpose of this study is to identify necessary and sufficient conditions in regime collapse that are shared cross-regionally by the Color Revolutions of the post-Soviet region and the Arab Spring uprisings of the Arab region by utilizing fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA or QCA). Two countries that experienced regime collapse were chosen from each region, Georgia and Ukraine as well as Egypt and Tunisia, and were compared with two countries from each region where the regime did not collapse even when faced with mass anti-regime protests, Armenia and Belarus as well as Algeria and Syria, for a total of eight case studies. This research presents conditions derived from popular theories on regime collapse, reviews the pre-revolutionary conditions of the case study countries, and applies QCA methodology to tests the necessity and sufficiency of conditions within countries where the authoritarian regime in power collapsed. Results of this analysis suggest that division among coercive forces, a political crisis that weakened the regime, and the high presence of a mobilized youth movement were necessary in regime collapse in both the Color Revolutions and the Arab Spring uprisings. Additionally, division among coercive forces combined with a political crisis that weakened the regime, high levels of unrestricted NGO presence, or a highly unpopular ruling elite present as causal combinations sufficient for regime collapse. Finally, Western intervention and influence presents as a possible stand alone sufficient condition, though further research is needed to identify the specific types of Western intervention and influence that are most effective.
|Advisor:||Stefes, Christoph H.|
|Commitee:||Jose, Betcy, Spehn, Thorsten H.|
|School:||University of Colorado at Denver|
|School Location:||United States -- Colorado|
|Source:||MAI 54/04M(E), Masters Abstracts International|
|Subjects:||Middle Eastern history, Political science, Russian history|
|Keywords:||Arab Spring, Color Revolutions, Post-Soviet Russia, Regime collapse|
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