Dissertation/Thesis Abstract

Predicting baccalaureate degree attainment: A university admissions model that includes transfer students
by Borden, Jonathan P., Ed.D., Spalding University, 2014, 161; 3642715
Abstract (Summary)

The purpose of this study was to report a more inclusive postsecondary graduation rate figure, improve the ability of postsecondary institutions to predict the likelihood that a student will graduate, and to help address challenges presented by the United States President and by the Kentucky General Assembly. The more inclusive graduation rate calculation is in contrast to the prevailing National Center for Education Statistics' (NCES) Graduation Rate Survey (GRS) calculation. The calculations used in this study incorporated data from the National Student Clearinghouse's (NSC) StudentTracker systems. The research population used in this study consisted of students who initially enrolled at the University of Louisville (UofL) in academic years 2000-01, 2001-02, or 2002-03. Using a more inclusive graduation rate calculation that counted a student as having graduated from any postsecondary institution, not just the institution where they initially enrolled yielded a graduation rate that was 10 percent higher for the research population than was reported under the prevailing methodology. The study created a Graduation Likelihood Model (GLM) to predict the likelihood that a first-time, full-time bachelor-degree-seeking student will graduate within six academic years. Eight independent variables were examined through chi-square and logistic regression (logit). The eight variables examined were gender, race/ethnicity, ACT, High School Grade Point Average (HSGPA), public high school (HS) vs. private HS, HS distance from campus, state/federal-grant/scholarship financial aid, and federal loan financial aid. In addition to running chi-square and logit on each variable, the procedures were run on the variables after they were included in four distinct categories: demographic, academic, pre-postsecondary academic and financial aid. The chi-square results showed that with the exception of HSGPA there was an association, albeit small, between the variables and successful graduation. All variables including HSGPA are to be used in the GLM, which can be used by postsecondary institutions to predict, at the time a student applies to the institutions, the likelihood that a student will graduate within six academic years. The GLM and the new calculation of graduation rates relate to initiatives set out by both the state of Kentucky and current US President Barack Obama. The new calculation provides a better way of assessing student achievement. At the time of initial enrollment, the GLM can be used to identify students, who may need additional assistance to obtain their degrees. To contact the researcher email: AdmitGLM@gmail.com

Indexing (document details)
Advisor: Faulkenburg, Marilyn
Commitee: Letteer, Mel, Steinberg, Mindy
School: Spalding University
Department: Education
School Location: United States -- Kentucky
Source: DAI-A 76/01(E), Dissertation Abstracts International
Subjects: Educational evaluation, Higher Education Administration, Higher education
Keywords: Grade point average, Graduation rates, Postsecondary education, Six-year degrees, University admissions
Publication Number: 3642715
ISBN: 9781321298161
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